Bitcoin’s market value should fall by more than a third before year-end, Swiss researchers say


  • By “Metcalfe’s law,” bitcoin’s market value by the end of the year should be no more than $77 billion, Spencer Wheatley and Didier Sornette, both professors of entrepreneurial risks at ETH Zurich, said in a paper dated March 16.
  • That’s $41 billion, or nearly 35 percent, less than bitcoin’s market capitalization Monday of $118 billion.
  • The Swiss researchers also found four distinct bitcoin bubbles that correspond to the “Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity” model which “were followed by crashes or strong corrections.”

The growth of new active bitcoin users is slowing, which by “Metcalfe’s law” indicates that the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization will not grow as quickly as it has, some Swiss researchers said.

Metcalfe’s law says the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users. By a generalization of that principle, bitcoin’s market value by the end of the year should be no more than $77 billion, Spencer Wheatley and Didier Sornette, both professors of entrepreneurial risks at ETH Zurich, said in a paper dated March 16.

That’s $41 billion, or nearly 35 percent, less than bitcoin’s market capitalization Monday of $118 billion.

A man walks past a Bitcoin symbol on a window of the offices of the bank 'La Maison du Bitcoin' on December 05, 2017 in Paris.

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